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Netflix Continues to Grow, But Rivals Also Upbeat About Future

Fern Siegel

The streaming momentum continues. Even giant Netflix will see ongoing growth, according to Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak.

His latest target price for Netflix is $650 a share, underscored by the big surge in users during the pandemic. The dynamics of streaming video will be sustained even with some price increases.

Pivotal is also upbeat about Disney+, given its strong children and family-friendly appeal. That large niche audience could entice users to prefer it to traditional TV. In addition, Disney+ can benefit from the declining pay TV business due to “ever increasing price, commercials [ad] loads and seemingly waning interest in sports,” it notes.

Streamers’ ongoing popularity also benefits Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+ — especially given their parent companies. “SVOD and given OTT products are not their core business [and] they may be willing to generate material losses in the video business,” writes Wlodarczak. That breathing room is particularly helpful to Apple TV+, giving it time room to grow.

In addition, a dual commitment to original content has won audiences, for example, the popularity of Amazon’s Emmy-winning “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”

These findings complement Digital TV Research’s forecast. SVOD subscribers in the U.S. are expected to see a healthy uptick. The researcher predicts they will rise from 203 million in 2019 to 317 million in 2025.

The growth will be led by new streamers, such as Disney+ (+27 million) and Hulu (+22 million), as well as Peacock (+11 million), HBO Max (+12 million) and CBS All Access/Paramount+ (+12.2 million), which will each add more subscribers than Netflix.

Wlodarczak predicts Netflix will add 2.5 million subscribers in the third quarter — up around 60 percent from its gains in Q3 2019.

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