Five global platforms will hit 529 million SVOD subscribers by 2025, adding 257 million subscribers between 2019 and 2025, effectively doubling their current totals, according to Digital TV Research. (That number does not include sports services.)
The company also forecasts that paying subscribers to VOD services in the U.S. will exceed 300 million in five years. One reason for the increase: The debuts of Disney+ and Apple TV+ last November. This spring, HBO Max, NBCU’s Peacock and Quibi will enlarge streaming options.
In order of streaming slices, Netflix is expected to be the ongoing leader in the U.S., with 65 million subscribers. Amazon Prime Video is second, expected to grow from nearly 54 million to 60 million users. Disney+ had a year-end 2019 figure of 17.3 million users; it will rise to 47.9 million, the third-most-subscribed SVOD service. Hulu will grow from 27.2 million to 40.48 million users. This will give Disney a combined 88.4 million subscribers, since it owns Hulu, though many of those users will subscribe to both.
HBO Max and Peacock, which both launch later this year, are expected to grow to 22 million and 12.2 million, respectively.
Digital TV Research also believes ViacomCBS’ strategy to expand CBS All Access with a recently announced broader streaming service could hike subs from 5.7 million in 2019 to 18.7 million in 2025.
Apple TV+ subscriber numbers are lower; it’s estimated at 5.5 million subscribers by the end of 2025.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, stated: “The average SVOD household will pay for 3.28 SVOD platforms by 2025; up from 2.28 at end-2019. So, the average SVOD home will add one subscription between 2019 and 2025.”
The study also looked at the growth of cord-cutting services, which threatens traditional cable TV. Digital TV Research says Hulu Live will be the most popular, growing from 3.2 million to 7.05 million, with YouTube TV growing from 2 million to 5.83 million in 2025.
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