Warner Bros. Discovery unveiled its plans to move past the HBO Max era and into the future with Max. CEO David Zaslav claims it will be “the one to watch.” But will the rebrand succeed?
Content is King
As audiences decide where to spend their limited streaming budgets, even one show can be enough to sway the choice. But what we saw yesterday doesn’t look appreciably different from what’s on the platform now.
“Game of Thrones” fans will get “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: The Hedge Knight” to add to “House of the Dragon.”
Harry Potter fans will get the same Harry Potter saga previously portrayed in films from 2001-2011, but in TV series form.
Fans of “The Batman” will get “The Penguin.”
“Big Bang Theory” fans will get a spin-off sitcom.
The problem with these titles? They don’t do anything to add subscribers. These franchises merely maintain the audience that already exists.
In the case of the Potter TV show, you have to wonder about the need for a reboot just 12 years after the film series concluded. And the TV show won’t have the benefit of a cast with Robbie Coltrane, Alan Rickman, Maggie Smith, and Gary Oldman, or the soaring music of John Williams. Like the film series, the show will play out over 10 years, which means the casting department will have to thread the needle to find another Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint, and Emma Watson. While the remake plows forward, fans will easily be able to access the existing saga on other platforms.
Growth on a platform comes from new shows. “Game of Thrones” started with 2.2 million viewers in its first episode before climbing to 13.6 million for the finale. “House of the Dragon” averages 9.3 million viewers on the first night each episode airs.
While it’s fine to milk a franchise, Max needs to invest aggressively in new shows. Take “The Last of Us,” for example. That show grew from 4.7 million viewers on the first night to 8.2 million viewers for the finale premiere. It’s easy to say, “Just make more new shows like ‘The Last of Us,’” but those shows take years in development, and the source material only suggests a short run. There are only so many talented showrunners and writers in Hollywood.
So if spin-offs and reboots don’t appeal to you, what’s your incentive to sign up for Max?
The Discovery+ Gamble
WBD believes it can build its Max audience by including select content from the discovery+ platform. That gamble could work, but for two important facts.
- Discovery+ will still exist as a standalone service.
- Only 7% of current WBD subscribers currently have both HBO Max and discovery+.
If you have discovery+ will you need to sign up for Max? Unlikely.
If you don’t have HBO Max currently, will the addition of some discovery+ content compel you to adopt Max? Also unlikely.
Adding discovery+ content is the equivalent of a Ford adding a cupholder to the trunk of the Mustang. Someone might appreciate the convenience, but it won’t tilt the buying decision.
What About Movies?
While Max will have the Warner Bros. library, Zaslav explicitly said there will be no direct-to-streaming movies for Max. Films will get theatrical releases, followed by eventual streaming dates. This means the film library will grow at a glacial pace.
James Gunn’s reboot of the DC universe could make Max a must-have service for any superhero fans who aren’t already pulled in by existing Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman content. But that will take many years to unfold.
Unless Max is willing to license content from other studios, the movie library isn’t going to look that different from how it is today.
The Missing Pieces
Part of the stated reason for dropping “HBO” from the service’s title was that parents were allegedly unlikely to turn to the service for their children. But the launch presentation only highlighted “Gremlins: Secrets of the Mogwai” and a reboot of “Tiny Toon Adventures.” That’s not enough to pull kids over from Disney+.
There’s also nothing like “Yellowstone” to lure in Middle America. There were no adult romances like “Outlander” or gentle love stories like what you’d find on Hallmark. Only one title (“A Black Lady Sketch Show”) seemed to serve the Black audience. None of the announced titles were aimed at the Latino audience. There was no LGBTQ title announced.
WBD didn’t mention anything about sports or news on Max, but those would be helpful additions, considering the WBD assets of CNN, TBS, and TNT.
If Max is supposed to be “the one to watch,” the content offering still seems too narrow to pull in a wide audience.
The Takeaway
While WBD executives made a lot of noise in their presentation, the end result is essentially a new coat of paint. HBO will continue its steady drip of high-quality content. Discovery will keep cranking out reality TV. Warner Bros. will lean on franchise movies with the occasional original.
If you don’t subscribe to HBO Max today, there will be little to entice you to Max when it launches on May 23. Unless Max suddenly stumbles on several new hit shows appealing to demographics it currently doesn’t serve, subscriber growth isn’t likely to change trajectory.
And if Max stumbles out of the gate, what’s the strategy to move forward? Will Zaslav get a long enough leash to turn the service around or would he be shoved out the door? Or will WBD be forced to sell assets to stay afloat? In some ways, the future of the company may be just as compelling as any of the shows we’ll be able to stream.
Max
Max is a subscription video streaming service that gives access to the full HBO library, along with exclusive Max Originals. There are hubs for content from TLC, HGTV, Food Network, Discovery, TCM, Cartoon Network, Travel Channel, ID, and more. Watch hit series like “The Last of Us,” “House of the Dragon,” “Succession,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” and more. Thanks to the B/R Sports add-on, users can watch NBA, MLB, NHL, March Madness, and NASCAR events.