The best argument in favor of the assertion that the Streaming Wars are over is the dominance of Netflix as compared to its competitors. No other streaming service has surpassed the 300 million subscriber mark as Netflix has, and no streamer has come close to replicating Netflix’s ability to generate profit.

But there are big changes swirling in the streaming world. Paramount Skydance is preparing to take over Warner Bros. Discovery, and once the transaction is complete, it will control both Paramount+ and HBO Max. Newly available data gives greater perspective as to how powerful a force the combined platform will be, though ultimately, a mountain of post-merger debt could keep it from sneaking past Disney’s streamers to settle into second place in the American streaming hierarchy.

Paramount has confirmed it will merge Paramount+ and HBO Max into a single streaming service once the two companies are combined. Per data from Luminate, the resulting streaming service will capture 20% of total hours streamed in the United States for linear network originals. Paramount/WBD will control channels such as CBS, HBO, Food Network, HGTV, and more, and these networks combined to accrue 9.1 billion streaming hours in 2025.

That figure slots the hypothetical combined “Paramount Max” behind only Netflix in share of viewership for linear network originals. Even the combined Disney+ and Hulu, which gets next-day streams of shows from ABC, Fox, FX, and other channels, does not rank as highly. Disney’s streaming services are commonly considered second to Netflix in the streaming pyramid, with Paramount+ and HBO Max both looking up at the combined 195+ million subscribers that Disney+ and Hulu share.

But neither Disney nor Netflix can beat out Paramount Max in another key metric: viewer retention for TV seasons. Paramount+ and HBO Max combined own a 32% share of viewership in terms of the streaming and linear originals that retained over 70% of their viewership over six episodes or more per season. In other words, Paramount Max owns the biggest viewership share of shows that keep customers coming back to the platform over the course of a season, as opposed to hooking viewers for an episode or two, then losing them.

Combining HBO Max and Paramount+ will also create a formidable reality TV streaming service. Data from Parrot Analytics, as reported by Deadline, shows that if the two streamers had been merged in the first quarter of 2026, the resulting platform would have a 25.1% share of demand for unscripted content across subscription streaming services — higher than Hulu and Disney+ (22.3%), Netflix (14.9%), and other streamers.

Clearly, consolidating HBO Max and Paramount+ will produce a streaming service with strong viewership in several key areas. It will also offer a wide variety of top sports, including NFL, MLB, and NHL games, as well as every single contest of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. But will it be enough to vault Paramount Max into second place behind Netflix in the American streaming pecking order?

My concern with that notion is that the combination of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery will create a massive debt load for the newly combined company. There could be as much as $6 billion in job cuts coming post-merger, which will carry a debt load of around $79 billion according to most estimates. That will leave the company — which some analysts have begun to dub “WarnerMount” — with less flexibility during economic downturns, more obligations to meet with free cash flow, and higher borrowing costs.

That’s the greatest argument against WarnerMount being able to elbow past Disney in the streaming rankings, in my view. Contrasting Paramount and WBD, Disney has closed its most recent major transactions — the final purchase of Comcast's share of Hulu, and the acquisition of a large portion of [NFL Media] properties — and new CEO Josh D’Amaro recently spoke of his desire to build Disney+ “beyond a premium video service.”

Disney is already able to show consistent profits from its streaming services, and with a huge chunk of the company’s revenue generated by its parks and experiences division, it has the financial strength to weather the continued downfall of linear TV. Will the popularity of linear titles and unscripted shows on the combined Paramount+ and HBO Max be enough to help WarnerMount counterbalance the loss of viewers and ad revenue from linear platforms? It seems unlikely.

It’s certainly encouraging that Paramount CEO David Ellison is intent on building a streamer set on continuing into the future. But as things stand financially, I’m unconvinced that merging the two streamers will create an entity powerful enough to unseat the Disney streamers behind Netflix, especially given the financial morass that WarnerMount will have to navigate for its first few years before it finds its footing.