There’s been plenty of talk from studios and streaming services about how to survive the concurrent strikes of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild - American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA). They’ll spin up more unscripted shows, or move series to broadcast channels that had been formerly reserved for streaming platforms and cable channels, as Paramount/CBS aims to do with “Yellowstone” this fall.

But a new survey released by MediaRadar is showing cracks in the foundation for studios and broadcasters. The company’s data suggests that lucrative revenue streams from advertisements could dry up if striking writers and actors aren’t put back to work soon.

MediaRadar’s numbers show that ad revenues for the first half of 2023 amounted to over $26 billion. That’s down year-over-year from the first half of 2022, but more important is MediaRadar’s breakdown of which TV segments contribute the most revenue overall. Of all ad expenditures in the first half of this year, 9% ($2.36 billion) came from talk shows, sitcoms and soap operas.

The problem for broadcasters is that all of these types of shows require writers. That’s why late-night talk shows were some of the first to disappear from airwaves when the WGA strike first hit in early May, which could be part of the reason that ad revenues from talk shows were down 1% YoY. Conversely, ad revenues for sitcoms and soap operas were both up in 2023 as compared to the first half of 2022.

“TV broadcasters could be hit hard if this strike continues for many more months,” said Todd Krizelman, CEO of MediaRadar. “Lucrative late night talk shows specifically have been off the air already for a couple months. Soon, fall programming, including talk shows, soap operas, and primetime sitcoms should air. However, that is likely to be delayed since they rely on writers throughout the summer for scripts.”

Simply put, studios and broadcasters are risking a major hit to their ad revenues this fall. Sitcoms, soap operas and talk shows make up too big a portion of ad money to stay off the airwaves for a prolonged length of time. If the strike does drag out, it could mean channels that rely on such revenues might be forced off the air entirely.

Studios have confidently expressed their belief that writers and actors will run out of money and patience to continue the strike before they do. But if MediaRadar’s data is correct, the strike could start to hit Hollywood’s top executives where they’re most tender — their company’s bank accounts — harder than the modest demands the two unions are demanding would.