Is the NFL courting streamers with its 2025 schedule?
Is the NFL courting streamers with its 2025 schedule?
The 2025 NFL schedule is built to maximize revenue, and it could be an attempt by the league to get streamers to pony up.
When the 2025 NFL schedule was released, consternation arose from certain circles of fandom, as well as from some players. The schedule this season is all about revenue, and some fans are upset that their teams have been left without primetime games as a result, while players of some franchises have to grapple with short rest as they jet around the country to play games in marquee windows. To my eyes, the schedule points to one thing: a 2030 opt-out that will see the NFL try to sell a large package of games to streaming services.
Key Details:
- Exclusives galore: ESPN+, Netflix, Peacock, Prime Video, and YouTube will all get streaming-exclusive NFL games this year.
- Ratings darling: Ratings for streaming-only NFL games continue to catch up to those on linear TV.
- New Deal: The NFL can opt out of current TV contracts and seek new deals as soon as 2030.
When analyzing the 2025 NFL schedule, it’s clear that revenue optimization was a key driving force for the league. Of course, that is not something new for a billion-dollar operation like the National Football League, but it does seem especially noteworthy this season. The number of marquee teams with multiple primetime games is a good example of this; all 2024 NFL playoff teams have at least four primetime games, and some have as many as seven scheduled in premium broadcast windows. The Dallas Cowboys missed the playoffs in 2024, but are such a consistent ratings draw that they have the second highest number of primetime contests.
But it’s not just playoff and big-market teams that are draws nowadays; the amount of marketable quarterback talent in the NFL means that the league can push almost any team into marquee windows and advertise the game as a top matchup.
Unfortunately, players are also being forced to accept rule changes that might compromise their health and safety in order to help the NFL put top matchups in prime windows. For example, this offseason, the NFL approved a rule change that allows games to be flexed into “Thursday Night Football” windows with 21 days’ notice; previously, 28 days of notice were required. This will allow the NFL to be more adaptive when teams turn out to be better than anticipated when the schedule was made, so the league can shift presumably better games into a primetime window more easily.
There are also more international NFL games in 2025 than ever before. Games will be played in Dublin, London, Berlin, Madrid, and São Paulo this year, which will help the league grow the game’s international fan bases even further. The NFL is already a relatively popular global sport, but nowhere near that of international soccer or even the NBA. By playing more games on foreign soil, the league is hoping to build its cultivate new fans in as many global markets as possible.
NFL team owners didn’t get to be billionaires by passing up revenue, so in that sense, it’s no surprise that the league has built the 2025 schedule to bring in as much as possible. But to my eyes, there’s a bigger reason — and a bigger pay day — for the league to try and optimize revenue over the next few years, and streaming will play a big part in it.
In 2030, the NFL can opt out of its existing broadcast deals with CBS and Fox. Most analysts expect them to do so, particularly when considering the NBA essentially tripled the value of its broadcast deal in its newest contracts with ESPN, NBC, and Prime Video. If the NBA can command that kind of raise, then surely the most popular sport in the country can expect a healthy revenue bump as well.
Not only will the league be seeking more money in the future, but I think that its moves to further optimize revenue and ratings in the present are intended to help it convince streaming services that backing up a Brinks truck when the time comes will be worth it. Streamers have historically not been as willing to spend money on sports live rights broadcast and cable networks, but when the NFL comes asking, no one in the broadcasting business will want to say no. Missing out on a large package of football games because you are too cheap to meet the league’s asking price is likely not the way to engender confidence from your shareholders.
Once reluctant to put too many games on streaming services, the NFL is changing its tune. Peacock, Prime Video, ESPN+, Netflix, and even YouTube will offer streaming-exclusive NFL games this year, and ratings for past streaming-only games have shown the league that streamers can attract an audience as large as those broadcast on linear channels.
There has already been some reported interest by streaming services in pursuing larger NFL packages than they currently have. Netflix is only contracted to stream Christmas Day games for now, but company executives have openly discussed going after a Sunday afternoon package once those games are on the market. If the league maintains a good relationship with Netflix over the next few years, it will make it all the easier to try and convince the world’s largest streamer to invest in live sports like never before.
I think the NFL will continue to use its schedule to enhance its reputation as a ratings juggernaut over the next few years, perhaps even more so than it is in 2025. If the league does opt out of current TV deals in 2030, I expect it to try and get streaming services bidding on its main packages, if for no other reason than to get CBS and Fox to up their offers. But if those channels get outbid for packages by a streamer like Netflix or Prime Video, the NFL will almost certainly be comfortable selling those bundles of games to streaming services in five years’ time.
Prime Video
Prime Video is a subscription video streaming service that includes on-demand access to 10,000+ movies, TV shows, and Prime Originals like “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power,” “Jack Ryan,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” “The Boys,” and more. Subscribers can also add third-party services like Max, Showtime, STARZ, and dozens more with Prime Video Channels. Prime Video also offers exclusive live access to NFL Thursday Night Football.