Half of NFL Fans Likely to Subscribe to Sunday Ticket Winning Bidder

As the live sports streaming war heats up, NFL Sunday Ticket is up for grabs as it is poised to leave DirecTV. Major players like Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+ are expected to be the front-runners for the package.

While DirecTV struggled to turn Sunday Ticket into a major revenue generator, a switch to a more widely accessible platform could attract enough subscribers to make these major bids worthwhile.

The Streamable surveyed 2,562 fans who regularly watch the NFL to better understand if a switch to streaming would produce a significant increase in Sunday Ticket subscribers and what price fans are willing to pay for this add-on.

Key Findings

• Sunday Ticket’s subscriber base could grow significantly: Almost half (48%) of NFL fans definitely will or are likely to subscribe to Sunday Ticket when offered by a major streaming provider.
• Sunday Ticket’s winning bidder stands to pick up a huge number of first-time subscribers: More than 40% of those that never subscribed before say they definitely will or are likely to subscribe
• Increased accessibility via a streaming service may not be enough though, it will have to be cheaper as well: Only 26% of fans willing to pay up to the current $300 base price.
• A base price offer of $150 - $200 could increase potential subscribers by 1.67x - 1.94x in comparison to the current $300 base price (which may require incentives or bundles if they can’t contractually drop the price).
• In comparison to fans of in-market teams, fans of out-of-market teams are:
  • 66% more likely to be currently subscribed
  • 191% more likely to state they definitely will subscribe
  • 48% more likely to subscribe overall
  • 195% more willing to pay the current price of Sunday Ticket

Note: If contractual obligations prevent a lower price, the winning service will need to offer incentives to reduce the effective cost and attract more customers (free subscriptions, brand products, gift cards, etc.)

Table of Contents

NFL fans’ current subscription status to Sunday Ticket

Of the 2,562 fans surveyed, 1 in 4 have had a Sunday Ticket subscription at some point. About half of those have canceled while the other half remain.

6% of fans are current subscribers paying full price ($300 - $400 / year) while 7% are paying a DirecTV promotional price where Sunday Ticket is included for free in the monthly price of DirecTV.

74% of fans surveyed have never subscribed to Sunday Ticket. That untapped audience is a major growth opportunity for the winning bidder if they are able to attract and convert them.

The likelihood NFL Fans will subscribe to Sunday Ticket

Nearly half of NFL fans surveyed indicated they definitely will, are very likely, or likely to subscribe if NFL Sunday Ticket is offered by a major streaming service - 3.69x more than the number of fans currently subscribed.

15% of fans’ are planning to definitely subscribe, while more than half say they definitely won’t or are not likely to subscribe.

This puts the focus for the winning bidder on attracting and converting nearly 1 in 3 fans who indicated they are likely or very likely to subscribe.

Likelihood to subscribe by current Sunday Ticket subscription status

When analyzing fans’ likelihood to subscribe based on their current NFL Sunday Ticket subscription status, we see that current, full price subscribers ($300 - $400) are those most likely to subscribe in the future.

Full-price subscribers are 2.6x more likely to definitely subscribe than current promo-price Sunday Ticket subscribers.

Those who canceled previously are the second most likely to subscribe, with 70% saying they definitely will or are likely to. In fact, they are 25% more likely to subscribe than those currently paying a DirecTV promo price.

The new owner of the package stands to score big with first-time subscribers. Of those who have never paid for Sunday Ticket, 13% say they definitely will subscribe and 26% say they are likely or very likely to subscribe. That’s a massive growth opportunity since this segment represents the vast majority of NFL fans.

The most NFL Fans are willing to pay for Sunday Ticket

Only 1 in 4 NFL fans say they would be willing to pay the current base price ($300) for NFL Sunday Ticket on a streaming service, despite nearly half of fans saying they definitely will or are likely to subscribe.

In order to attract more potential subscribers, the winning bidder will need to subsidize the price or provide incentives to reduce the effective cost.

Even the fans who are most likely to subscribe aren’t attracted to a $300 price tag, with only 40% saying they would be willing to pay.

A target price between $150 and $200 may be ideal as offering a base price of:

• $150 nearly doubles the number of fans willing to pay
• $200 increases the number of fans willing to pay by 67%

Most fans are willing to pay by current subscription status

On average, fans are willing to pay up to $175 for Sunday Ticket.

Those who never subscribed before and those who canceled previously are willing to pay the least on average - $156.03 and $203.14 respectively.

Current subscribers are willing to pay the most, ranging from $217 to $285 on average.

Twice as many fans that have canceled previously or never subscribed before are willing to pay $150 in comparison to $300. Making a $150 base price ideal for targeting the largest segments of potential NFL Sunday Ticket subscribers.

By lowering the base price from $300, Sunday Ticket could attract more fans who:

• Currently subscribe - full price
  • 41% more fans at $200 base price
  • 53% more fans at $150 base price
• Currently subscribe - promo price
  • 47% more fans at $200 base price
  • 60% more fans at $150 base price
• Previously canceled
  • 90% more fans at $200 base price
  • 121% more fans at $150 base price
• Never subscribed
  • 72% more fans at $200 base price
  • 105% more fans at $150 base price

Current full-price Sunday Ticket subscribers are a die-hard bunch, willing to pay significantly more to keep the service. More than 13% of them are willing to pay up to $450-$500 to keep the games. That percentage is three times higher than those on a discounted Sunday Ticket plan who would be willing to pay a premium to continue.

Most fans that are likely to subscribe are willing to pay

When looking at the highest price fans are willing to pay by likelihood to subscribe, it provides another clear indicator that price is the major objection to subscribing.

Fans that definitely will subscribe are willing to pay $102 more than those that are likely to subscribe.

While 6 in 10 of those who definitely will subscribe are willing to pay the current base price of $300, only 23% of those who said they are likely to subscribe are willing to pay that much.

By lowering the base price from $300, Sunday Ticket could attract more fans who:

• Definitely will subscribe
  • 22% more fans at $200 base price
  • 36% more fans at $150 base price
• Very likely to subscribe
  • 56% more fans at $200 base price
  • 76% more fans at $150 base price
• Likely to subscribe
  • 115% more fans at $200 base price
  • 163% more fans at $150 base price

The likelihood NFL Fans will subscribe if they follow in-market vs out-of-market team

Fans whose favorite team often plays out-of-market are 66% more likely to be currently subscribed to Sunday Ticket. They’re also 58% more likely than in-market fans to have ever subscribed to the packag

Nearly half of out-of-market fans who are currently subscribed pay full price – that’s 26.58% more than the number of currently subscribed in-market fans.

In-market vs out-of-market fans likelihood to subscribe

More than half of out-of-market fans indicated that they definitely will or are likely to subscribe when Sunday Ticket is offered on a streaming service - 48% more than in-market fans.

Out-of-market fans were also nearly 3x as likely to state they definitely will subscribe in comparison to in-market fans.

Most in-market vs out-of-market fans are willing to pay

32% of out-of-market fans are happy to pay the current price of $300 - $400, more than 3x that of in-market fans.

In fact, the number of out-of-market fans willing to pay the current $300 base price for Sunday Ticket is 36% greater than the number of in-market fans willing to pay up to $200.

It’s clear that the value of Sunday Ticket to out-of-market fans is significantly higher than for in-market fans. Despite this, the increased accessibility, combined with a less expensive base price of $150 - $200 could attract 117% - 186% more in-market fans, while still being an attractive price for more than half of out-of-market subscribers.

Conclusion

The move from DirecTV to a major streaming service makes a premium service such as NFL Sunday Ticket significantly more accessible. Such a shift could lead to a significant increase in subscribers - even at the current price.

With that said, accessibility alone is not enough to maximize the subscriber base. The price will also have to be more accessible. A price adjustment will help the winning streaming service maximize the number of new subscribers, retain current Sunday Ticket subscribers, and bring back those who have canceled in the past.

There is one potential issue - it may not be possible for the winning bidder to offer Sunday Ticket at a lower price tag due to contractual obligations. If this is the case, brands will have to get creative by providing other incentives for new subscribers that reduce the effective cost to the consumer. Only time will tell before we learn whether AppleTV+, ESPN+, YouTube, or Amazon Prime Video win the bid and become the new home of NFL Sunday Ticket.

About NFL Sunday Ticket

Although there are plenty of options for how cord cutters can stream NFL games lives without cable, NFL Sunday Ticket is the only option for those who want to be able to watch all out-of-market NFL games. For the avid football fan who wants to see every out-of-market game on Sunday afternoons and is available to DirecTV subscribers or to those who live in a dorm or apartment without access to the satellite version of NFL Sunday Ticket. Learn whether or not the service will meet your NFL-watching needs through our review of NFL Sunday Ticket, where we break down Sunday Ticket’s cost, free trial options, features, and compatible devices.

About The Streamable

The Streamable is a leading source of news, information, and resources on the streaming industry, streaming services, and streaming devices. Helping hundreds of thousands of current and future cord-cutters that visit our site every month to help them find the best way to watch their favorite content without cable. Whether you are looking to learn the best way to watch live sports without cable, about the top live TV streaming services to watch your favorite channels, or anything in-between, The Streamable is your go-to source.