Do Fans Who Sign Up to Streamers like Paramount+ and Peacock for NFL Football Stay Subscribed?
New data from Antenna shows that the NFL is not only a powerful draw, but it can create loyal, long-term subscribers for streaming services.
Despite an increasing number of streaming-exclusive games, including in the playoffs, NFL audiences do not yet seem to be fully embracing streaming. A recent study from Inscape confirms this as its data shows that 71.5% of NFL viewing time in the fourth quarter of 2023 was done on cable, satellite, or over-the-air TV as opposed to streaming services, but that can be expected as the league is still attempting to build its streaming presence. Now, new data from Antenna shows that customers who sign up for streaming services with the express purpose of watching NFL games can be a loyal subscriber segment for platforms.
- Antenna’s numbers show that Paramount+ and Peacock each gained 3 million+ subscribers thanks to streams of NFL playoff games during the 2023-24 season.
- Each streamer saw 65% or more of the subscribers who signed up to watch NFL games stay subscribed by the end of February.
- The data has implications for several platform that plan to offer NFL games in the future, such as ESPN’s standalone streamer and Prime Video.
Peacock was the first streaming service ever to offer an exclusive NFL playoff game when it streamed the Jan. 13 Wild Card game between the Miami Dolphins and the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Initial estimates from Antenna suggested that the game drove 2.8 million individual signups to the service, the biggest subscriber increase due to a single event in streaming history. Since the initial announcement, those numbers have even been revised slightly upwards and Antenna now says the game brought 3 million new customers to Peacock.
Super Bowl LVIII was an even bigger draw for Paramount+, despite the fact that national audiences could watch the game on CBS via traditional pay-TV platforms or over the air, or on Nickelodeon for the special “SpongeBob SquarePants” family-focused broadcast of the game. Antenna’s numbers show that 2.3 million viewers signed up to Paramount+ via its special 30-day free trial offer ahead of the Big Game and another 1.1 million new paid subscribers joined the service as well.
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It’s reasonable to assume that a large segment of these customers would cancel their subscriptions to Paramount+ and Peacock once these games ended; after all, Antenna has measured the general churn rate rising 300% in the past five years as prices rise and customers hit the limit of streaming services they can justify in their budget. But the newest data from Antenna indicates that Peacock’s one-month survival rate among customers who signed up to watch the AFC Wild Card game on the service was 78%. Paramount+ also saw a majority of Super Bowl-minded subscribers stay with the streamer; 65% of those who signed up to watch the Big Game had kept their paid plan or converted from a free trial to a paid subscription by the end of February. Antenna’s initial Paramount+ estimate does not include iTunes distribution, which Antenna estimates was 21% of the Paramount sign-ups.
Despite those positive numbers, Paramount+ and Peacock can’t necessarily count on these viewers in the long term just yet. Other data recently released by Antenna shows that viewers who are in their first three months of a streaming subscription are at their greatest risk of cancelation. Nevertheless, the fact that so many customers stayed subscribed to these services after a month is an encouraging sign to other media organizations that are considering offering streaming-exclusive NFL games.
Is the NFL’s Presence on Streaming Services About to Increase?
The data from Antenna shows that other NFL partners might want to start taking steps to ensure they can keep customers who sign up to watch football games subscribed for the long haul. Prime Video is the next streamer to get an exclusive NFL playoff game, as it will offer a 2024-25 season Wild Card game exclusively to national audiences. Prime Video had the first right of refusal for the exclusive playoff game that eventually went to Peacock in January, but the success of that broadcast has convinced the platform to try its luck with the playoffs this year.
The new joint venture streaming service coming from Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery could also see a large segment of customers sign up just to watch the NFL. The service — which many in the industry have dubbed “Spulu” while they wait for an official name to be announced — is slated to offer all Sunday afternoon NFL contests available from Fox, as well as all “Monday Night Football” games appearing on ABC and ESPN. Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch has forecast the streamer would only pick up 1 million customers per year during the first five years on the market, but NFL fans could drive those numbers significantly higher.
ESPN has a standalone streaming service intended to offer all sports content available on its family of linear channels launching in fall 2025. Reports this week indicate that the worldwide leader in sports is still looking for investment partners for the platform and the NFL tops its list of potential candidates. Antenna’s numbers show that an NFL partnership would be highly beneficial to the streamer, especially as a deal between the two could lead to NFL Media content like NFL Network and NFL RedZone falling under ESPN’s auspices. That would make the standalone ESPN streamer a destination not just for live games, but for the best highlights and analysis from league experts.
Streaming services that want to keep younger fans who sign up to their platforms to watch the NFL should consider turning away from their top franchises. A recent study conducted by Tubi and The Harris Poll shows that 74% of millennial and Gen Z audiences want original titles as opposed to franchise content or remakes, and platforms that can successfully create more of these shows have a better chance of retaining these age groups in the long term when they sign up to watch football.
NFL football is an expensive get; Paramount Global owes the league $2 billion per season for its package of Sunday afternoon games. But Antenna’s latest report shows that streaming services that carry NFL games have the chance not only to pull new customers but keep those customers subscribed past the point of being billed for another month of service.
Amazon Prime Video
Amazon Prime Video is a subscription video streaming service that includes on-demand access to 10,000+ movies, TV shows, and Prime Originals like “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power,” “Jack Ryan,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” “The Boys,” and more. Subscribers can also add third-party services like Max, Showtime, STARZ, and dozens more with Amazon Prime Video Channels. Prime Video also offers exclusive live access to NFL Thursday Night Football.