Will NFL Break Its Current Broadcast Contracts Early? If So, How Many Games Will Become Streaming-Exclusives?
The NFL has the right to end its broadcast deals with CBS, ESPN, Fox, NBC and Amazon four years early if it chooses.
As the world awaits the NBA’s next national broadcast contract, one party likely observing the proceedings closely is the NFL. The Association stands to make nearly $7 billion per season in its new deal, almost triple the $2.7 billion it currently collects from ESPN and TNT. The NBA has reached this number in part by carving out a new package of games from its existing inventory and selling it to a streaming outlet (Prime Video) and now it could be the NFL’s turn. The football league has the right to exit its broadcast contracts with CBS, ESPN and ABC, Fox, NBC, and Prime Video four years early if it chooses, which means it too could partner with one or multiple top streaming services to help distribute its games as early as 2030, just six years from now.
Key Details:
- The NFL can exit its current broadcasting deals as soon as the end of the 2029 season.
- The league has been increasing its presence on streamers with the addition of more and more streaming-exclusive games.
- A widely expected shift to an 18-game season could give the NFL the incentive to ask for a massive raise from providers.
The NFL has never turned down the chance to boost its revenues, and with the NBA negotiations going so well for that league, it would be difficult for the NFL not to at least consider leaving its current broadcast contracts and starting over again following the 2029 season. Its current partners may grumble if the NFL does so, but it’s a risk they all gladly took when the current deal was signed in 2021.
If all goes according to plan, the proceedings could look much like an NFL free-agent signing. The NBA is currently in the process of securing a market-resetting deal, and given that the NFL is the biggest ratings driver in all of television, it might be that league’s turn to reset the industry sooner than originally anticipated. A quick glance at ratings data of NBA games versus NFL contests should be enough to convince most providers that if the NBA can collect $6.9 billion per season for its rights, the NFL should be able to command more than the $10 billion it now makes.
As further justification for a pursuit of a new broadcast contract, the NFL is expected to shift from a 17-game season to an 18-game one before the opt-out clause in the current deal becomes available. That will create more game inventory, and give the league more ammunition when it goes to broadcasters with its request for increased annual rights fees.
What Could the NFL’s Next Deal Look Like?
If the NFL does pull out of its broadcast contracts early, an enhanced presence on streaming services appears likely. The NFL has already begun shifting more games to streamers; its current deal sees national broadcasts of “Thursday Night Football” air exclusively on Prime Video, and in 2024 the league will offer an exclusive playoff game on that streamer, as well as an opening-week contest on Peacock.
Ratings from 2023's Peacock-exclusive Wild Card game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins, as well as improving numbers from Prime Video’s weekly “TNF” streams, will likely convince the league that streaming is slowly inching closer to broadcast in terms of its ability to deliver an audience. That could lead to a much bigger presence on streaming for the NFL in its next deal.
The Streamable’s expert analysts do not anticipate that the league would leave broadcast channels behind entirely. Fox would almost certainly pay whatever it took to retain its current Sunday afternoon package, as would NBC for “Sunday Night Football” and ESPN for “Monday Night Football.” Prime Video may try to get even more games, as its pursuit of the NBA indicates it has sustained interest in high-demand sports events. But what will CBS do? Paramount Global is currently in the midst of complex merger and acquisition talks, and there has already been discussion that its $2 billion-per-season deal with the league for the other Sunday afternoon package is too rich for it as the company’s finances stand now.
Ultimately, we think CBS’s Sunday afternoon package is the most likely to be moved to a new platform, simply because the rest of these current bundles are owned by outlets that will most likely pay what’s necessary to keep them, and given the uncertain ownership situation around Paramount, it is difficult to know what the company will even look like in 2030, let alone what the management strategy will be when it comes to sports rights. That doesn’t preclude the creation of new event-based packages, like the NFL’s first Black Friday game in 2023 or its decision to challenge the NBA’s dominance of Christmas Day in 2023 and 2024. The league has been in discussions with Netflix regarding Christmas games this year.
Netflix is likely the best candidate among streamers to make a meaningful pursuit of CBS’s current NFL package. If CBS can no longer financially justify renewing its NFL deal, or if Paramount is broken up into disparate pieces, if the league decides to keep this package intact, Netflix and its nearly 270 million customers is one of the few streaming platforms that can make the case to the NFL that it has the reach and the technology to reliably deliver games each week to an audience at least close to the size it drew on broadcast. This is one of the NFL’s most valuable game bundles, so Netflix would likely have to pay a premium to get it, but as the most profitable streamer on the market it has the financial ability to make a meaningful bid on this package if it chooses.
The Streamable also foresees big changes to the NFL Sunday Ticket package. As of now, it seems like a product out of time; reports indicate that Sunday Ticket drew just 1.3 million subscribers in its first year on YouTube TV. With the cost of streamers like Prime Video and Peacock costing $10 per month or less, it’s hard to make the case to streaming audiences that they should pay several hundred dollars per season for a package that delivers all out-of-market games with no flexibility to watch just one team. On-demand streaming and the ease of canceling streaming services have trained customers to think that streaming means more choices and greater flexibility, and NFL Sunday Ticket will need to offer that kind of flexibility if it wants to become a truly effective streaming product.
All of this prognostication is centered on a hypothetical that may not come to pass. But the NFL’s accountants are shrewd, and there could be billions in extra revenue to be had if the league does opt out of its current broadcast deals early. The NFL is an increasingly popular streaming product, and an increased streaming presence in its next broadcast deal should be looked on as a foregone conclusion by fans.
Amazon Prime Video
Amazon Prime Video is a subscription video streaming service that includes on-demand access to 10,000+ movies, TV shows, and Prime Originals like “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power,” “Jack Ryan,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” “The Boys,” and more. Subscribers can also add third-party services like Max, Showtime, STARZ, and dozens more with Amazon Prime Video Channels. Prime Video also offers exclusive live access to NFL Thursday Night Football.