Will Prime Video, Netflix, Disney+ Be the Only Streamers Left Standing in 10 Years?

It’s a shame that Amazon doesn’t report subscriber numbers for its streaming service Prime Video publicly. If it did, it would almost certainly show that the platform is one of only two in the entire world that can claim to have over 200 million streaming users. The other, of course, is Netflix with its 247.15 million global customers.

• New data from Parks Associates shows Netflix and Prime Video users have the greatest subscription loyalty of any streamers.
• Each sees the average subscriber duration of more than four years.
• In a world where streaming aggregation is essentially guaranteed, Prime Video and Netflix have the best chance of absorbing other services as opposed to being absorbed themselves.

This Isn’t a Popularity Contest! Is It?

New data released by Parks Associates shows that Netflix and Prime Video are not just some of the largest streaming services in the world, they have the most loyal customers as well. Parks’ numbers indicate that both streamers can claim an average duration per subscriber of more than four years. That’s more than double the average duration of streaming services like Paramount+, Disney+ and Max.

“Households are still experimenting with different services as they evolve over time to build their own service stack,” Parks Associates’ Eric Sorensen said. “Service consolidation has changed subscription dynamics, as Showtime has become part of Paramount+ and HBO is now Max, but even as consolidation occurs, it is having a limited effect on churn for these services. Premium service subscriptions average around two years, which suggests consumers are getting better value out of the consolidated content.”

A recent survey found that 35% of users who cancel a streaming service resubscribe within a year, so the fact that other streamers can’t match Netflix and Prime Video in subscription longevity doesn’t necessarily mean they’re doomed. But it is an impressive indication of how well Prime Video and Netflix manage to keep users engaged on average.

Admittedly, the longevity of these services’ subscribers is in large part due to the maturity of the platforms. While Prime Video launched its streaming platform in 2006 and Netflix did so a year later, its competitors like Disney+, Max, Paramount+, and Peacock are all far newer.

Why Netflix and Prime Video Are Best Equipped to Be Aggregators

The customer loyalty data from Parks shows why Netflix and Prime Video might be in the best position of all as the Streaming Wars end, and the Age of Aggregation begins. This is true, even though both streamers have very different reasons for commanding such customer loyalty; Netflix has built its reputation from the ground up as the streamer with the best content over the past decade, while Prime Video sees such high retention rates due to its bundling with the Amazon Prime service.

In addition, Prime Video is already an aggregation platform. A Prime Video subscription doesn’t allow customers to watch content from other streamers like Max, AMC+, or STARZ, but they can pay to subscribe to those services through the Prime Video Channels interface, which allows them to keep all those subscriptions on the same monthly bill.

Netflix does not allow users to access third-party streamers through its platform, but it has been active in pursuit of licensed content. It is currently importing new and legacy series from HBO, while they remain on Max, and co-CEO Ted Sarandos has promised more popular titles licensed from other outlets are coming to the service; Disney chief executive Bob Iger said in his company’s most recent quarterly conference call that it was in talks with Netflix about licensing, though its core brands would stay on Disney+.

Based on The Streamable’s analysis of streaming trends since the site launched in 2017, we feel confident that greater aggregation is undoubtedly coming to the streaming industry. There are simply too many services at the moment and too many companies who don’t have the resources to make their streaming platforms profitable in an age where Wall Street won’t simply reward a big quarterly subscriber haul anymore with financial gains to show for it. Sooner or later, one of these companies will realize that they don’t have a path to financial success via streaming, and look to make a deal.

Paramount Global might be the first domino to fall. It’s reportedly already for sale if someone can come up with the right number for controlling shareholder Shari Redstone. Neither Netflix nor Amazon would likely be interested in the company’s linear channels, but getting their hands on its numerous franchises like Taylor Sheridan’s extended universe, Star Trek, Halo, SpongeBob SquarePants, and other popular properties would be a huge get for either company.

If Paramount, or a similar-sized outlet, were to sell its streaming assets to Netflix or Prime Video, it could set off a market-wide chain reaction. Other comparatively small streaming services might begin a race to sign on with one or the other such service, afraid of being the last one at the dance without a partner. Some companies like Lionsgate are already trying to figure out what to do with their streaming services, and many may decide to divest of a streaming segment in order to focus all corporate efforts on squeezing as much out of their linear TV channels and big screen releases as they can. When the dust settles, it could just be Prime Video, Netflix, and Disney+ standing.

It’s hard to see Disney giving up and licensing its vast, intellectual property-rich library to another company, even as it begins to show its age at 100 years old. The company seems dead-set on actually following through with plans to launch a streaming version of ESPN that won’t need a cable subscription, and will be merging Hulu and Disney+ onto a single app in a process that will start next month. Perhaps in the future, all Disney streaming services will be placed on one, tiered app, but it’s hard to imagine it no longer having a streaming presence in a decade.

But as far as streamers that are looking to become aggregators instead of aggregated, in our expert opinion, it could be down to just three in 10 years: Netflix, Prime Video, and whatever future iteration Disney chooses for its streamers. Market forces could see those companies swallow up all other competitors, and improve their already-impressive customer loyalty metrics to near churn-proof.