Well, now it’s up to the lawyers. Warner Bros. Discovery and the NBA have begun a legal battle that could stretch on for months as the company has filed a lawsuit against the Association concerning issues with its recently announced new broadcasting contracts. The main issue is that the NBA has sold three rights packages in its new deal beginning with the 2025-26 season; one to Disney, one to Comcast, and one to Amazon. WBD tried to exercise pre-existing contractual matching rights to claim the Amazon package, but the NBA rejected that attempt, saying a dollar-for-dollar approach to Amazon’s bid doesn’t constitute a full match. But will that argument stand up when the case is put before a judge? Will it even get that far? Only time will tell.

Key Details:

• The NBA is expected to argue that Amazon’s larger streaming customer base provides more reach than WBD can offer.
• Ratings could also be a key part of the NBA’s arguments for selling to Amazon.
• TNT is available in more than 200 countries around the world, and Max is launching in new territories as well.

Most analysts expect the NBA to argue that even though WBD offered the same $1.8 billion per season that Amazon did for the “C” rights package, the larger subscriber total of Prime Video means that it has more reach than WBD’s combined platforms TNT and Max do. As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, WBD had 99.6 million global streaming customers — the vast majority on Max — while Amazon revealed in April that Prime Video had 200 million worldwide viewers.

The NBA can also use Prime Video’s higher ratings as a way to claim WBD’s offer cannot match Amazon’s. Prime Video accounted for 3.1% of all TV watched in June 2024, as compared to 1.4% for Max. These figures will be key for the NBA in trying to prove that it was justified in rejecting WBD’s “matching” offer as not a true match.

Where Could the NBA’s Argument Fall Apart?

Despite the soundness of the arguments, the Association could find itself in trouble quickly if it tries to advance these arguments. It is true that TNT is available in a declining number of households in the United States, but its reach extends to more than 200 countries around the world.

However, Amazon included the language of its offer being “streaming only,” presumably in an effort to prevent WBD to including both TNT and Max as part of their rebuttal bid. However, in comparing the size of each company’s streaming audience, there is a lot of unknowns that would impact what actually is a “match.”

WBD’s streaming platform began offering NBA games aired on TNT through its Bleacher Report Sports Add-On last October. Max is available in broadband-ready homes in many countries, and continues to expand internationally. Prime Video may currently be in more territories, but neither service is getting international rights to the NBA in all countries where its streaming platform is available.

Max originally intended to begin charging $9.99 per month extra for its B/R Sports package; perhaps it held off on asking customers for money for B/R Sports because it knew paywalling NBA games while Prime Video intends to offer them at no extra charge could be used against it in court?

This will also hurt Amazon when the company argues that it has more customers than Max. While that is still likely the case, the tech company will have to demonstrate that in regions where Prime Video would be allowed to show NBA games, it has a significant viewership advantage over Max. If the tech company is eventually required to make that case, it could potentially mean that Amazon would be forced to share proprietary subscriber data with the court, which the company has been notorious for not making that data public.

While Amazon execs said this past spring that the streamer had over 200 million global subscribers, that number is likely significantly different than its number of viewers. Prime Video is one of the perks that comes with a subscription to Amazon Prime, the e-retailer’s membership program most known for shopping deals and free shipping. The company has never broken down how many actual users its streamer has, which could prove problematic if it has to justify that has a larger platform compared to WBD.

While Max likely still has a smaller number of regular viewers than Prime Video, it at least can be argued that every one of its subscriber base is actively paying for the service, and not simply receiving access as a fringe benefit that they generally ignore.

Despite these challenges, the NBA seems undaunted in its determination to move away from TNT and onto Prime Video. Sources close to Adam Silver have said repeatedly that he expected to be sued over the move, and his league has been preparing for weeks. The NBA’s lead media rights negotiator Bill Koenig is expected to take a large role in defending the league’s deal with Amazon, and he’s gained a reputation in his field for exhaustive preparation.

Even as someone who has been following this story for more than a year, I have no idea how this will all ultimately end up. WBD could just be angling for a settlement, or it may intend to carry its suit through to the end. While some sort of settlement is the most likely outcome, a suit could end up making precedents for years to come.