The lengths that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will go to to grow the sport should not be underestimated. Goodell has helped pro football continue to be a ratings and revenue juggernaut, in part by expanding its popularity in Europe, Mexico, and other global territories with the use of international games. Goodell has spoken on his desire to add more international NFL games to the schedule, and a new package of games means a new set of broadcasting rights to sell to programmers. It seems inevitable that these games will end up on a streaming service eventually, and I’ll take a look at which services are most likely to win the rights below.

Key Details:

• Goodell recently expressed his opinion that the league would be offering one international game each week of the season.
• Netflix stands out as a streamer with the international reach that the NFL is looking for.
• ESPN’s new streamer Flagship and Prime Video are also obvious candidates.

How much is the NFL looking to expand its presence internationally? According to comments Goodell made in early October, there could be a game held outside the United States nearly every week of the regular season at some point in the future.

“We’re going to continue to grow,” he said of the league’s international footprint. “I think we’ll end up going to 16 (international) games at some point in time. The owners have already authorized us in going to eight, but I’m confident, particularly if we can do the restructuring of the season, that we would get to 16 at some point.”

As of now, many NFL international games air on NFL Network, with some contests scattered around various streaming services like ESPN+. But the future of the channel is currently hard to predict; the NFL clearly doesn’t see owning a cable channel like NFL Network as a key investment any longer, considering how deep in talks it reportedly was with ESPN earlier this year about selling its media assets to the worldwide leader in sports.

More recently, the NFL has engaged with Skydance Media about buying its media division. Skydance and the NFL have worked together in the past, and if a sale does eventually take place Skydance would clearly want to keep some of those international games for itself. But the league’s desire to expand to as many as 16 international matchups every year will create an inventory that the NFL would almost certainly try to sell to more than one partner if its past media rights tactics are an indication.

Which Streaming Service Will Win a New NFL International Package?

Goodell and the NFL ownership group are fully aware of the continuing decline of cable TV. More and more games have been moving exclusively to streaming services in the past few years, with ESPN+, Peacock, Prime Video, and now Netflix joining the list of streamers that have gotten games viewers couldn’t see anywhere else.

So which of these outlets will have the best chance of securing a big bundle of international NFL games in the future? A service with a global audience is a must-have for the league, which would likely cut Peacock out of the mix since it’s only available in the United States.

Ultimately, I think there are three streamers that stand the best chance of locking those games up: Netflix, Prime Video, and the forthcoming ESPN streaming service that has been given the working title “Flagship.”

Netflix is an obvious candidate now that it’s a bona fide NFL partner. The streamer acquired the rights to the league’s Christmas Day package earlier this year, and has the largest audience of any service in the world at 282 million customers.

Netflix has been wary about live sports in the past, but its willingness to invest in live NFL games this year clearly indicates it knows how much of a ratings giant pro football is. The biggest brand in streaming and the biggest brand in pro sports seem like a natural fit if the financial details can be worked out.

Amazon isn’t a bad choice either, and its deep pockets might allow it to outbid even Netflix. There are more than 200 million Prime Video customers around the world already, and the NFL already has tangible proof that it can attract an audience to that streamer, considering the 24% climb in ratings for “TNF” games in Amazon’s second season as the exclusive host of national broadcasts of that package.

A new ESPN streaming service is coming down the pipe as well, and it too could be a fantastic candidate for hosting international NFL games. ESPN is available in more than 190 countries, and Flagship will offer a much wider range of content than is currently on ESPN+, including live streams of ESPN linear channels. The NFL and ESPN have a longstanding relationship, so the league would know what it was signing up for by teaming with the new ESPN streamer for international games.

There are other candidates as well, but I’m not sure they’re as viable. DAZN, for example, distributes NFL games internationally through NFL Game Pass. American customers, however, aren’t as familiar with DAZN, and asking them to add another streamer to their inventory to watch games — especially one that costs $20 per month — could be a step too far even for the NFL.

Apple TV+ has a noted preference for sports deals that give it international reach, and would likely jump at the chance to get involved with the NFL. Apple almost secured the rights to NFL Sunday Ticket before that package eventually shifted to YouTube TV, but as with DAZN, I’m dubious that the NFL would opt for a streamer with such a relatively small customer base that isn’t tied to a broadcast network, as Peacock is with NBC.

That’s why I think Netflix, Prime Video, or Flagship are the best candidates to win a big portion of the NFL’s potential new international games package. It will take the league a few more years to up its inventory of international games to the levels Goodell envisions, but once that happens, keep an eye on those three services as potential homes for the contests.