YouTube TV Set to Post a Profit for the First Time in 2024
The live TV streaming service is already the largest in the United States in terms of customers, and is set to achieve a coveted streaming milestone.
In most respects, YouTube TV more resembles a runaway freight train than a streaming service nowadays. The streamer is having a highly successful year so far, as it now claims 8 million subscribers, more customers than any other live TV streaming platform and more than all but three of the biggest traditional cable and satellite companies in the United States. The successes will continue for the streamer this year, as a new research note published by MoffettNathanson and reported by NextTV forecasts that YouTube TV will hit a highly coveted goal among streaming platforms in 2024: profitability.
- Nathanson predicts that YouTube TV will have a positive operating income of $200 million in 2024.
- The prediction also suggests that YouTube TV will gain 1.5 million subscribers per year going forward.
- As much success as YouTube TV has experienced, it still has work to do with NFL Sunday Ticket.
MoffettNathanson is one of the most respected media research operations working today, and its predictions carry a hefty amount of weight. The firm says that it expects YouTube TV to post a profit of $200 million by the end of 2024, following a net operating income loss of $300 million in 2023. Net income for the streamer will continue to rise, and could hit as much as $600 million per annum by 2026.
YouTube TV is already the largest live TV service on the market, as its next-closest competitor Hulu + Live TV has 4.6 million customers. Reaching profitability this year would get YouTube TV across that finish line before Fubo, which has targeted 2025 as its first year of profitability.
The MoffettNathanson note also forecasts that YouTube TV will continue to grow its customer base at an impressive rate. The prediction is that the streamer will add 1.5 million customers per year, reaching 12 million subscribers by 2026.
“Given the rapid growth of YouTube TV – especially in the context of the accelerating decline of traditional Pay TV providers – it is quickly becoming a crucial player in the linear TV ecosystem,” Nathanson said. “At the current levels of decline [of cable and satellite subs], YouTube TV is on a clear path to becoming the largest pay-TV provider in the United States. “
What About NFL Sunday Ticket?
The report regarding the MoffettNathanson note did not indicate whether it had anything to say about NFL Sunday Ticket, the out-of-market games package that YouTube TV acquired the rights to in 2023. At the time, MoffettNathanson predicted that NFL Sunday Ticket would have to bring in 4.5 million customers to let YouTube TV break even on a deal that pays the league $2 billion per season in rights fees.
The problem is that in its first season, YouTube TV did not draw anything close to that amount of fans to Sunday Ticket. The platform attracted just 1.3 million subscribers in 2023, and that could add up to a big net loss for YouTube TV in the first year of its deal. Sunday Ticket will remain with YouTube TV through the 2029-2030 season before hitting the open market again.
YouTube TV provided a host of discounts on Sunday Ticket in 2023, but was still only able to pull in around a third of the customers it needed. League officials have discussed the possibility of allowing fans to buy smaller team packages on Sunday Ticket to potentially lower the price and attract more subscribers, but they stopped short of entertaining the notion of single-team plans.
YouTube TV may indeed reach a highly prized goal among streaming services in 2024. According to MoffettNathanson, profitability awaits at the end of the year, but YouTube TV still has a bit of a pickle on its hands when deciding how best to attract more customers to NFL Sunday Ticket and make purchasing its rights a wise investment.
YouTube TV
YouTube TV is a live TV streaming service with more than 60 channels for $72.99/month. This plan includes local channels, 32 of the top 35 cable channels, and regional sports networks (RSNs) in select markets. The service includes an unlimited DVR. The Streamable does not recommend YouTube TV. Consider DIRECTV STREAM for a better channel lineup or Hulu Live TV for its free Disney Bundle.