As Studios Pivot Back to Theatrical, Will It Take Longer for Movies to Arrive on Streaming?

Breaking up is hard to do, but during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, that’s exactly what movie studios and theaters had to do. Many studios started sending their titles directly to streaming, and even after theaters were allowed to open again some streamers, like HBO Max, continued the practice of day-and-date streaming releases.

Nowadays, however, the formula seems to be shifting once again. HBO Max is a stark example of the change in mindset overtaking film studios regarding theatrical releases. Once the champion of the day-and-date release, its new parent company Warner Bros. Discovery is now hyper-focused on ensuring its films bring in as much money as possible in theaters before moving to streaming.

In August of 2022, WBD CEO David Zaslav confirmed that a “strategic shift” in the company’s movie release plans was underway. Since then, the studio has released some films, like “Don't Worry Darling” to streaming around the 45-day mark, while others like Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis” biopic took 70 days to reach HBO Max.

“Our focus will be on theatrical,” Zaslav said of the company’s strategy in August. “When we bring the theatrical films to HBO Max, we find they have substantially more value [after being on the big screen].”

When theaters first began opening again, an unofficial agreement between theater chains and movie studios was struck. Movies would remain in theaters for at least 45 days, which would give theaters enough time to at least break even after spending the money to get the films in the first place. At that time, studios were still incentivized to bring movies to streaming quickly, as new blockbusters drove big new subscriber numbers for streaming platforms.

Now, however, the streaming marketplace is very different than it was in late 2020 and early 2021. There are countless subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services available, and investors are no longer interested in streamers simply piling up new subscribers, but racking up deficits to do so. Streaming losses of $1.5 billion in one quarter led in large part to Disney abruptly changing CEOs from Bob Chapek to Bob Iger in November, and Disney’s latest Marvel Cinematic Universe film “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” just saw the longest theatrical window of any Marvel film yet at 82 days.

Disney has mostly stuck with a 60+ day theatrical release for its Marvel films in the past year. “The Eternals,” released in Nov. 2021, got a 68-day stint in theaters, and “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” got 70 days. “Thor: Love and Thunder” got a 62-day theatrical stay before coming to streaming about a week earlier than normal thanks to Disney+ Day in September 2022.

The big exception for Disney was “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” which was only in theaters for 47 days after debuting on May 22, despite being the highest-grossing MCU movie of 2022. However, this is likely because “Love and Thunder” was on its way to theaters two weeks later on Jul. 8, and Disney didn’t want the two films competing against each other at the box office.

Paramount seems to be pulling away from the 45-day theatrical baseline, as well. Its top-grossing film of the year “Top Gun: Maverick” was in theaters for over 200 days before coming to streaming, and the studio has some big tentpole movies coming out in 2023, including the new “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.” Paramount Pictures CEO Brian Robbins said in September he liked the 45-day window generally, but his company would be “flexible” with its movies going forward.

So what does all this mean for the average movie-goer? In short, it’s likely the 45-day standard is getting closer to 70 days, at least for blockbuster movies. Studios have an easier time monetizing their movies in theaters and then via rentals and digital purchases than they do by putting them on SVOD services; and it’s easy for film producers to make the case that movies like “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” deserve to be enjoyed on the biggest screen possible.

Related: Where (and When) Can You Stream the Most Anticipated Movies of 2023?

One factor that could possibly mitigate the lengthening of theatrical windows is the spread of ad-supported streaming. Nearly every major streaming service now offers an ad-supported price plan which gives media companies a new revenue stream. If blockbuster movies draw more users to these plans — even if the films themselves are shown without commercial interruption — it could help executives make the case for shorter theatrical windows again.

The effects of ad-supported streaming on theatrical windowing will take a little longer to fully understand, but the meantime, it may be wise to prepare yourself for theatrical windows closer to 70-75 days for your most anticipated films of 2023.