NFL Sunday Ticket Attracting More YouTube TV Subscribers Could Be Google’s Saving Grace
One analyst projected NFL Sunday Ticket would need over 4 million subscribers per season to help Google break even on the deal, but YouTube TV could be its X-factor.
The NFL season is rounding into its 11th week, and — as per usual — chaos has ensued in the league. The AFC has eight teams with four or five losses currently, meaning that the playoff seeding for the conference will likely come down to several consequential games spread across the last few weeks of the season, just the way the league prefers it; and that very likely will make one of the NFL’s newest streaming partners very happy.
- New data from Antenna shows that 62% of NFL Sunday Ticket sign-ups this season have been made by YouTube TV subscribers.
- Almost a third of this 62% segment signed up for YouTube TV at the same time as their Sunday Ticket subscription.
- More YouTube TV subscribers could be key in helping Google afford the $2 billion per season it’s paying for Sunday Ticket rights.
How Many NFL Sunday Ticket Subscribers Are Also YouTube TV Subscribers?
The chaotic nature of the league ensures that ratings will stay high for the rest of the season, whether viewers are watching games in-market on broadcast TV channels or out-of-market on NFL Sunday Ticket. YouTube TV is in its first season of hosting Sunday Ticket, having won the rights to stream the package after its departure from DIRECTV following the 2022-23 season.
YouTube TV’s parent company Google is paying around $2 billion per season for Sunday Ticket rights, but thus far has only attracted around 1.3 million customers to the service. A price drop that went into effect earlier this month around the mid-season point could bring in a few hundred thousand more users by season’s end, but that number is a far cry short of the 4.5 million that MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson said the company would need just to break even on the agreement.
New data released by entertainment analysis firm Antenna may help ease anxieties around Google and YouTube headquarters, however. A new report shows that 62% of all NFL Sunday Ticket subscriptions came from people who also had YouTube TV. Of this segment, 31% signed up for a Sunday Ticket subscription at the same time as they subscribed to YouTube TV. All in all, that has led to an increase of 250,000 subscribers for YouTube TV, which Antenna estimates now has reached 7.3 million subscribers.
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Other estimates peg YouTube TV’s subscriber count at around 6.5 million; it’s hard to get a rock-solid number, as Google does not regularly report YouTube TV’s actual subscriber data. Still, if Antenna’s numbers are correct, Google added around 250,000 YouTube TV subscribers just from its Sunday Ticket customer pool, which at $72.99 per month comes out to around $18 million per month in extra revenues.
Will YouTube TV Subscriptions Save the Sunday Ticket Deal from Being Labeled a Disaster?
That $18 million per month only comes out to around $73 million per season, a comparative drop in the bucket against Google’s $2 billion yearly obligation to the NFL for Sunday Ticket. But if YouTube TV can ratchet up the rate of conversion from 31% next season, it could see a dramatic windfall from those new customers, particularly if it can keep them subscribed after the NFL season ends. Antenna’s numbers show that 38% of Sunday Ticket subscribers chose to grab the platform a la carte through YouTube TV’s Prime Time Channels, so there is a meaningful base of users the streamer can try to convert next year.
Flexibility from the NFL could also help matters. Recently, NFL chief media officer Brian Rolapp said that the league may allow providers to offer smaller games packages that don’t embrace an all-or-nothing mentality. He stressed that single-game streaming options won’t be on the table for the league, but his comments leave the door open for the NFL to offer cheaper divisional Sunday Ticket packages if they don’t want to allow users to stream just one team on the service.
Technical improvements like a customizable multiview feature could also lure more customers to YouTube TV and Sunday Ticket. The financials are still tough for Google, but it knew they would be when it entered into negotiations to land Sunday Ticket in the first place. If it can convert more Sunday Ticket users into year-round YouTube TV subscribers, it will be able to steer another significant revenue stream toward paying its rights fees for the package.
YouTube TV
YouTube TV is a live TV streaming service with more than 60 channels for $72.99/month. This plan includes local channels, 32 of the top 35 cable channels, and regional sports networks (RSNs) in select markets. The service includes an unlimited DVR.