NBA Set to Emerge from Exclusive Negotiating Windows with ESPN, TNT; What Will its New Deal Look Like?

Who wants to play ball with the NBA? Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery were the Association’s national broadcast partners in its last deal, which saw the league make $24 billion over the course of nine years. Various reports have stated the NBA wants to double, or even triple the amount of revenue it makes from its broadcast rights in the next deal, and its exclusive negotiating window with Disney and WBD is set to expire on Monday, April 22. CNBC reports that no deal announcement is expected before that window expires, which will officially open the door for other broadcasters and streamers to make a play for the league’s rights.

• The NBA reportedly wants at least one more partner in its national broadcasting equation and would prefer that partner be a streamer.
• Apple, Amazon, NBC, and even Netflix have had reported interest in acquiring some NBA rights.
• ESPN and TNT are highly unlikely to lose the NBA, even if the exclusive negotiating period passes without a deal announcement.

If the NBA wants to make as much as $75 billion from its next broadcasting deal, it will likely have to expand beyond just ESPN and TNT to reach that total. Last fall, it was reported that Disney and WBD both wanted to shrink the number of games they offered each year. That could have been nothing more than a negotiating tactic, but CNBC’s latest report indicates that neither company wants to pay double or triple the amount for the same package of games they have now.

The league has already made it known that it wants to sell a streaming-only package of games in its next deal, as well. Apple has shown at least passing interest in acquiring some NBA rights, and Netflix was rumored to be interested in rights the league’s new In-Season Tournament last year.

Amazon’s streamer Prime Video is the most logical candidate to partner with the NBA. Prime Video reportedly wants to acquire local rights to stream NBA games, which could become available through its investment deal with Diamond Sports Group. The streamer has also told the league it wants a package of playoff games in any potential deal.

What’s the Most Likely Structure of the NBA’s Next Deal?

ESPN got 100 nationally broadcast NBA games between itself and ABC during the 2023-24 season, and TNT received another 65 games. The rest of the NBA’s contests were played on regional sports networks affiliated with individual teams.

That means that if the NBA wants to add a third, or even fourth partner to the equation, it may have to split that 165-game package into smaller pieces or add games to it. Let’s assume for the moment picks just one more partner, Prime Video to move forward with in addition to ESPN and TNT after the 2024-25 season.

An even split of 55 games each is the easiest way to divide a 165-game schedule between the three outlets. However, getting ESPN/ABC to pay much more for the rights to a bundle of around half as many games as it showed last season could be a hard sell for a company like Disney, which has many demands on its revenue at the moment. The league may have the ability to expand the number of nationally broadcast games it offers, which could aid its quest to make more money from its next deal.

Ultimately, The Streamable’s experts predict that if the league sticks with a 165-game national TV schedule in its deals going forward, it will send 85 games per season to ESPN/ABC, and 40 games each to WBD and Prime Video. That will achieve the goal of reducing the number of games for ESPN and TNT, as Disney and WBD have said they want to do, and carve out a package big enough for Amazon.

If ESPN pays $2 billion per season for that package, and Amazon and WBD each kick in $1.5 billion per year, that will bring the amount it pulls in each year to $5 billion. That’s close to doubling the $2.7 billion per year the league makes on its deals now, and if it sells the rights to its In-Season Tournament to Apple TV+, NBC/Peacock or Netflix for another $500 million each year, it will have achieved its goal of at least doubling the value of its deal. Netflix’s past stances on paying for live sports make it an unlikely partner for the NBA, but it can’t be counted completely out.

Which games will be streaming exclusives in the deal? Obviously, the Amazon package would fall into that category, but there are likely to be exclusives thrown in for Disney and WBD as well. Max launched its Bleacher Report Sports add-on, which will allow it to grab some exclusives each year. Disney is due to launch an ESPN streaming service that carries all content available on the linear ESPN family of channels by 2025, and this platform could also get some exclusives. It’s unlikely Disney will send any NBA exclusives to its current sports streamer ESPN+, which has never shown NBA games in its history thus far. Ultimately, the Association will probably give both companies the ability to make 5-10 games each season streaming exclusives. The league could also easily turn the In-Season Tournament into a streaming-only competition on Apple TV+, Peacock, or Netflix.

This is the most likely outcome for the NBA in The Streamable’s opinion, but there are myriad other possibilities on the table. Despite the fact that Disney and TNT are set to emerge from their exclusive negotiating window without a deal with the NBA, they’re almost certain to stay in business with the Association. Now, the question becomes which streamers will make the most compelling offer to the league to get a portion of its rights.